Plastics & Semiconductor Shortages, Container Port Backlogs, the Texas Freeze Wreak Havoc on US Auto Manufacturing | Wolf Street

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The automotive industry relies on extensive supply chains and timely inventory. The production plan is long in advance, and the entire industry depends on a perfectly functioning supply chain. A car is a computer on wheels. Every car contains a lot of plastics and thousands of semiconductors. It can control everything from the windows to the entire powertrain, and of course the infotainment system. If a supplier runs out of a chip, they cannot manufacture components and cannot assemble vehicles, and the assembly plant must be closed.

Then there is the transformation of stimulus payments and consumer spending from services (such as flights, hotels, cruises, theaters, sports events, restaurants, etc.) to the promotion of durable goods (such as household appliances, laptops), and the demand for durable goods appears Historical surge, video consoles, smartphones, computerized fitness equipment and new cars. And there are many semiconductors in them. It has the following effects:

At the end of last year, supply chain disruptions caused by semiconductor shortages began to plague automakers and component manufacturers.

Then, in mid-February, there was an impeccable timing when a terrible winter storm swept across most of the United States, violently hitting Texas, causing several days of blackouts and other damage. Four semiconductor factories in Austin were closed; two Samsung factories are still closed, pushing the shortage of chips to new heights.

Now, due to the freezing of Texas and the closure of petrochemical plants along the Gulf of Mexico, the shortage of plastics has become increasingly serious. Many plants are still offline, thus destroying the supply of plastics.

This is the basis of the turmoil in the shipping industry. Container ships gathered near ports on the west coast for several days and were unable to unload their cargo due to the backlog of the port and struggle with bottlenecks and other problems. With countless container ships being suspended, Asia now lacks ships and containers for cargo destined for the United States.

Due to shortages of chips, parts and plastics, and damage to assembly plants during winter storms, automakers have announced production suspensions and cuts.

Honda said today that it will stop production at most of its five factories in the United States and Canada next week. It blamed chip shortages, supply chain issues (for example, components hanging on container ships waiting along the coast), and cold weather that caused pipeline ruptures in some of its factories.

Toyota Motor said today that it will stop production at its assembly plant in North America. The company blamed the closure of its Kentucky plant on a shortage of petrochemical products. It also announced plans to reduce production at the Tacoma pickup truck assembly plant in Mexico.

Volkswagen said this week that due to chip shortages, it has lost production of about 100,000 cars worldwide; due to chip shortages and problems caused by the Texas winter storm, the company has a large backlog of unbuilt vehicles. It tells

It will try to catch up with car production in the second half of this year!

On Monday, General Motors closed plants that assemble Cadillac CT4, Cadillac CT5 and Chevrolet Camaro. Due to chip shortages, the company closed three factories in the United States, Canada and Mexico in February. The Mexican factory will remain closed until the end of March. The assembly plant in Fairfax, Kansas and the CAMI plant in Ontario will be closed until at least mid-April.

These production cuts hit many models, but General Motors is trying to protect the production of its lucrative full-size pickup trucks and SUVs, and these factories continue to operate.

Ford has currently closed or reduced the production of six assembly plants. In early February, it said it would cut production of its F-150 pickup truck, which is the best-selling car in North America. For Ford, this is a very profitable product. It eliminates the entire shift, thereby reducing output.

According to reports, Tesla suspended production of its Model 3 at its Fremont plant in California in February and early March for two weeks. A month ago, Tesla said that it was trying to mitigate the impact of chip shortages.

This happened at a time when China's demand for semiconductors was strong. In China, consumers who are now banned from spending money on overseas travel, like Americans, consume large amounts of durable goods, including cars. This is an effort made by Chinese companies to store semiconductors in an era of trade restrictions.

For Americans trying to buy a new car, it will be a mess in the next few months or in the rest of the year or even beyond. These production cuts will be felt on dealer batches and have already been felt, especially on popular models.

Now, a new round of stimulus payments is being issued. Incentive payments can provide the perfect down payment for a new car. With this money in the bank, people will feel capable of shopping. Moreover, dealers know that when consumers have the ability to buy, they will not trade on popular models that are in short supply. Consumers will pay more.

As recorded by the largest dealer chain in the United States, consumers have already paid higher fees for new cars at the end of last year.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) called this inflation and shortage caused by inflation "temporary" inflation-assuming it will not be embedded. It is on top of periodic inflation, which is currently playing a role in the entire economy. No matter what it is called, for Americans, this means that life will become more expensive.

We are now rebuilding in the mid-1960s.

The situation is almost the same, and we are pursuing exactly the same policies as at the time.

The Fed will get more than its inflationary aspirations and will prove powerless to stop it.

Only when you lie down and let them take power. You do see that this is man-made, don’t you?

Covid bills must be paid, and inflation is your way of dealing with it. The only demi-supernatural power

You hit the point! ! ! ! !

Strangely, no one talked about inflation when the $2.2 trillion CARES Act was passed last year or the $2.3 trillion Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017.

I want to know why?

What has changed in the past few months?

Harold,

"What has changed in the past few months?"

inflation.

Biden will wholeheartedly try to raise taxes, but everyone will find dodge-we have never looked at members of Congress, oligarchs and companies have nothing. Then it's back to the point where monetization and inflation are too high to even pretend to lie.

By the way, no matter what they say now, MMT relies on tax increases to ease inflation. But the central planners of the Ivory Tower always think that citizens are dishes, not creative people focused on survival. The mansard roof is my favorite.

This is not a tax issue. A temporary problem is that some groups get more income, while other groups are close to zero income. A large amount of money needs to be pumped into the economy in a short period of time so that the economy can continue to survive. Even if you do nothing (same as the economic situation), it will make those who can earn more income feel inflation.

By the way, if it means a better life/economy, increasing taxes is not bad. For truly powerful people, there are other ways to make more money than not paying taxes

Absolutely not.

The 2008 financial crisis ignored moral hazard. Your suggestion brings moral hazard out of the twenty-story window.

Although everyone has transferred production, JIT logistics and complex supply chains to a good idea, they all need to go bankrupt.

More and more ordinary people tell you that this will be compensated by inflation, which is even crazier.

In addition, there is no change in the government or bureaucracy. You want the people who caused the chaos to be responsible for fixing it. Of course, they will only make the situation worse.

sailor:

"The 2008 financial crisis ignored moral hazard."

of course can!

After this "danger" is eliminated, any financial stability adjustments can be made to the damage inflicted on the public during this period. Moreover, we usually continue to be in charge of the same person with the same economic philosophy or thought, which mitigates any enlightenment from different thoughts.

The country has actually been raped by the wealthiest and most restrained individuals, politicians and companies that have appeared on the stage of history.

As another commentator mentioned above, "offshore" mass production of resources is not a good idea, it is worth it for him/her.

What we have is the result of the self-education of those who believe that they have the right (and power) to influence most of the earth’s inhabitants; I believe this kind of thinking will reappear in their faces like a huge financial rubber band.

The future prospect is a real rise in interest rates, which will squeeze speculative black money out of the market and fall into the abyss as a result. Without this necessary "market adjustment", we cannot proceed from the actual economic/social perspective.

Historically, I can understand why the Federal Reserve has planned a family. But it has been successfully (?) reshaped to serve only the trapped classes. It is completely fraudulent now.

May we see better days.

This is "moral hazard" for you.

You are not a molecular biologist who studies evolution or zoology, but if you work in a pharmaceutical factory... it would be great! Perhaps hedonistic allowances should be provided for new drugs, because we have been using "luxury" drugs more and more. It seems that I see a new book on TV every day. Many "pharmaceutical engineers" and expensive equipment are working, and all lasers only focus on one thing, thus providing a "modern and advanced health experience" for all of us! If it's not hedonistic, then I don't know what to do.

Oh yes, please make sure to click "Expand" to see which famous universities these top molecular biologists work in, so that they can publish their work on NIH (type any name and see if they still "discover" What happened). Now, even university stuff usually ends with "may have therapeutic value."

By the way, I saw on TV that we were "rediscovering" fibromyalgia, which was a controversial diagnosis when it first appeared. There are also new drugs used to treat tardive dyskinesias, which are caused by SSRIs that treat your psychological "problems".

Enjoy the medicine offered by our hedonistic modern MBA, don't bargain, don't buy the stocks in it, but make money from it.

This is a good type of moral hazard. This is "We have your support, we will provide you with support, so if anything hits you instead of your fault, it won't destroy you."

JIT and complex supply chains are a good thing*

*) Like everything in moderation

It's "good moral hazard", isn't it? Like "alternative facts"?

Well, I imagine a phrase like this is the "type" of "all in moderation"... if you like to confuse things.

Wolf deleted the plan announced by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to further study the old patented drugs, change one or two atoms, and regain the patent for additional profits, perhaps because This is a large-scale pharmaceutical company paper of about 15 "scientists" who have cooperated in the field of "science and technology".

As I want to point out, when the MBA comes to work, it is not a science. Curiosity and profit, you know.

I want to stop preaching and let the idiot swallow any new miracle medicine that is good for ya, Rx or OTC. The poor doctor is trapped (or even complicit in) our MBA-driven medical miracle, as I said, this is probably seen as forced hedonism...just like Wolf’s car/truck chart . In any case, CPI-U will be lowered.

If it is reasonable,

1) DC is not a high debt-to-GDP ratio. In the decades before Covid, the nightmare of rights has been haunting them *and*

2) Inflation is the most dishonest and corrupt financing method of the so-called democratic government (compared to the business round table/the tinplate aristocracy of the political class)

For covid, you need to finance about 20% of GDP, and inflation is the only wise move.

Four years ago, how did we pay for tax cuts?

commemorate…

More like the 70s, but agree.

The Fed meeting is a joke. They can't do anything, so they do nothing.

Theft, simple and clear, is determined by non-popular elections.

Inflation is a tax that non-elected institutions advocate and "pass" for citizens without any representation. That is "tax without representation".

In addition, casting, whether it is physical casting or digital casting, is the power of Congress, and so is taxation. ("U.S. Constitution", Article 1, Article 8)

Question the Fed

The Fed ignored two of the three mandates it allowed to implement.

Stable prices (promoting the inflation rate to depreciate from the dollar by 22% to 28% within ten years)

Medium long-term interest rate (record low yield is extreme and therefore moderate)

When will BITCOIN hold a two-day meeting to instruct us?

what.

They only need 3 days to complete the payment. Haha.

Inflation is a tax for people who have more cash equivalents than debt, but it is a subsidy for people who have more debt than cash. Most people have more debt than cash, and most cash-rich people have very little cash, so it doesn’t matter. Almost all working companies that are not banks have much more debt than cash equivalents.

The problem with the site is that most readers are senior citizens, and senior citizens often have more cash equivalents than debt.

When you punish saving, you will cause trouble in the future. No one can save is equivalent to consuming your ability to produce real goods. After a few decades, you begin to feel that it has lost the standard of living.

Before we were 30, all my brothers and sisters and myself had more cash equivalents than debts. If this means living in the smallest house rather than a luxurious life, we will definitely do it. If that means changing careers as the market changes, working in two shifts, or migrating throughout the country or another country, then we have done it.

Why should we pay for those who are less cautious than ourselves?

perfect! !

good idea. We came to the United States from the wreckage of Germany, and now our deceased parents have experienced the Weimar era of inflation. They say that inflation is to reduce the war debts to France. The parents refused to mortgage, worked like dogs, saved, invested and hired many Americans. Their children (including me) remember the war years and did the same thing. Therefore, the concept of savings is difficult to break, but if this situation continues, I will have to buy a house in Malibu, where there is no recourse for mortgages. Then when it crashes, we can send a jingle mail.

"Most people have more debt than cash"

Your behavior seems to be the result of a lightning strike, not the result of a personal agency or company's decision.

And...well, *savers have already conducted a 20 MF ZIRP issuance...but the situation of debt addicts is worse than ever.

It has nothing to do with age (I am in the middle)...80% of the time is related to caution and carelessness.

Until the last disaster, when the latter finally exhausted the resources of the former.

@老套

Yes, it will cause trouble in the future, but how will you solve the financing problem? It's just big and frustrating to solve it in another way.

@sailor

Have you rented a house yet? It doesn’t matter whether you have real money or what you belong to (of course everyone with less than one year of work income belongs to this)

@ cas127

People don't decide who the parents are, so this is not a question of surrogates. Suppose you save a year of income and you are 40 years old (if you are not a born child, that would be great), then you can spend 2.5% of your income over the next 40 years, which is not much. Saving is not important, income is important, it depends more on economic conditions

problem? Gosh, in any fair world, we are all talking about the main jail time of Bernanke, Yellen and Powell, and even Greenspan if we can.

Passive serfs in the United States provided the green light for the super-rich, and they could even stuff bread crumbs on the floor into their pockets.

George Carlin enters the grave

Hell, abolish the Federal Reserve, and then start to use the currency issued by the United States like President Kennedy, but failed to complete it.

What do you get from it...will love to read it.

Tom: US President John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110 on June 4, 1963.

") Article 43(b) of the Act as amended by the Act of May 12, 1933 (31 USC 821(b)) gives the President the power to issue a silver certificate against any gold, silver or standard silver. The national treasury dollars used to redeem any outstanding silver certificates, stipulate the denomination of such silver certificates, and use coin standard silver dollars and auxiliary silver currency for redemption,"

There are two views on this. 1) Kennedy is trying to return to the currency issued by the United States, and 2) this is a temporary stopgap for the transition to a complete Federal Reserve monetary system.

whatever. There are many references and comments on the Internet. Like all political historical references these days, you have to do some analysis and evaluation. See what conclusions you draw.

I think this is one of the reasons why local dealers restrict the supply of certain vehicles. In conversations with local RV dealerships, they said that some manufacturers find it difficult to buy molded plastic sinks, toilets and other things from China. Therefore, this is not only a demand-side issue, but also a supply-side issue. I guess it’s time to go to bed and I won’t buy any durable goods in the foreseeable future because I only shop at prices.

>>Cars are computers equipped with wheels. There are a lot of plastics and thousands of semiconductors in every car.

There are millions of transistors in these semiconductor chips, yes. Thousands of semiconductors (chips and/or discrete semiconductor components), absolutely not. Almost certainly, it will be less than a hundred individual components.

It's not a big deal, just to keep your eyes open.

NARmageddon,

You need to take a look at the internal structure of the new car. You are a person inspired by technology. You will be very happy.

There are chips on every wheel! ! (Part of the tire pressure monitoring system). The wheel is the simplest part of a car. Then look at the infotainment system. Chips are everywhere. Each meter is electronic, with a screen. There is a computer screen and multiple functions in the center. The number of chips in the steering wheel exceeds your expectations (you can control many functions of the infotainment system through the steering wheel). The entire dash is driven by chips. Then it manages the powertrain, 10-speed transmission, exhaust system, cooling system, fuel system, braking system (anti-lock brake system), 10 airbags, communication system, 16-way power seat, trunk lid, electronic access System (small number buttons next to the door), electronic key fob that communicates with the car via radio waves, door lock mechanism, parking assist, uphill assist system, reversing camera, lighting system with switches, sensors and LEDs, with radar (? ) The adaptive cruise control system can respond to traffic around you, electric handbrake, the button to start the car, the dial for selecting gear, the accelerator pedal operated by telex, the rain sensor will turn on the wiper when the drizzle starts, rainy weather The sensor will turn on the headlights when it gets dark....

Just scratch the surface here.

And I believe we can only manufacture 12% of the chips.

Our dependence on a China that really doesn't like us will be reflected.

Who poses a threat to us, even for Biden's supporters, our position will be obvious. Trump will be proven right again, at the border.

Even in the initial stage, MSD will still actively perform 100% tongue bathing (although it is dying), Biden will indeed be hit hard in relaxing the Stay-in-Mexico system (this is one of the few things that have been successful in 35 and a half years). One) The illegal immigration disaster of the year).

Biden bends down wisely, sticking to DC knitting most of the time.

However, relaxing the "stay in Mexico" is a huge one for him and the country as a whole, and there is no compelling mistake.

Yes, but NARmageddon’s statement is also correct. The number of major suppliers for each type of chip (microprocessor, power supply, passive components) is limited. Manufacturers of infotainment systems try to limit the number of suppliers, thereby restricting suppliers. quantity. oif different chips. No one wants to develop software for 3 or 4 different microprocessors at the same time.

As far as I know, compared to chips used in phones/game consoles, chips used in cars are cheaper/less profitable. Therefore, automotive chips are ranked last. It's quite deadlocked for any reason. I want to know if it will be resolved as quickly as they expected?

Car specifications are usually at an ambient temperature of 125°C or even 150°C, which is much higher than the standard specification (85°) chips for mobile phones or games, so they are also much more expensive. However, they are more difficult to manufacture, more expensive, and are far less expensive than mobile phones and game consoles, so all the automotive industries are not a good thing for suppliers.

I've read the same thing...Car chips are last.

But I also read that the kinking of car chips reached its peak in January.

Perhaps we are just seeing the follow-up of the crisis that has passed and the consequences of the past.

The performance of the old car is as good as the pig infested with the new chip. Would you like to change your favorite Benz to Shelby Cobra? My heart beats, but after the chip in the key failed, I got rid of it-$300.

Has anyone got a heart attack by manually rolling up a window? Or fall down to check the tire pressure and the back is not good? It's just that more things have failed. After the malfunction, I had to replace the wheel and tire pressure sensors on Lexus. The tire pressure is very good.

Yes, the mechanics and the car body have been improved and will not rust as before, but they must find some way to increase the price and make up for the lost repair revenue.

Horses work as well as cars, you only need to feed them hay and water. No need for natural gas, oil, transmission fluids and anything special.

Buy two and you will soon have countless horses to supply, and you will never need to buy another one.

Harold: It is illegal to raise horses where I live. Maybe it's a dog cart? But this may also be illegal on the road.

Those Mennonites and Amish have something here. They don't seem to be affected by all these. Want to know if they accept applications.

@Joe

Like horses today, driving ICE in cities will be illegal in 20 years or less.

The only non-electronic control device I can find on a 2020 car is the hood release device.

? Unexpectedly.

Hey, the automotive engineer is there to make the hood release electronic and software controls!

One thing surprised me and disappointed me a bit, to find that my 2016 M4 does not have a dipstick; it surprised me. Although it may be worth discussing when I am driving.

To open the hood, you need to pull the hood release lever twice, and its latch is fixed from both sides, not just in the middle.

Dan Romig

Why use a dipstick when the car is equipped with a sensor system to tell you when to change the oil?

My 2006 Infiniti G35 still has a dipstick, but it is shaped like a worn-out rattle snake. You have to thread between various engine parts, pipes, hoses, heat shields, exhaust manifolds, and aim The little hole in the tangled. It's really hard to use. Thankfully, our current vehicle has a system in the dash that will tell me when to change the oil.

Wolf, most owners don't know what's under the hood, so why bother!

Wolf,

When the car's system will tell you where the oil level is and when it was last changed, you need a dipstick.

I have 42 years of owning a car program, not only to check the oil level on the dipstick, but also to check the appearance of the oil that changes color from after it is changed to when it needs to be changed.

"You can't teach old dogs new tricks."

Just received an email from BMW advertising the new all-electric i4. There is no dipstick on this one!

Therefore, we have invested in more semiconductor manufacturers here and increased the supply until car prices stabilized. Then give taxpayers more incentives to buy more cars. This is foolproof. Just like perpetual motion machine. The slums have new cars, and the slums have new private jets. All of this is true worldwide.

These jobs are gone forever and never come back. It is best to consider providing tax subsidies to American technicians who close US factories and open chip factories in Bangladesh at a price of 0.50 per hour.

We need to move on and be constructive by thinking about how to improve the lives of Americans... It's like giving members of Congress the free car of their choice and the free socialist medical services they tell us about farmers. This is not good. , And we did not.

"...Cars are computers with wheels, and every car contains a lot of plastics and thousands of semiconductors..."

I have never owned my old diesel truck like I do now, so I have never been so grateful. It has a mechanical injection pump, as long as you can start it, it can run without electronic equipment. Once running, even if there is no battery, the AC power will never stop, even if the battery and the alternator are off.

The neighbor has a brand new 2020. Since the new truck came out, it has lasted 24 years in the store than my old truck. They must put it back in place. It had some electronic ghosts, which caused the battery to run out and the entire truck stopped. This is a nightmare that the dealer cannot solve.

DC-The dealer mechanism is not good at solving problems. They are trained to plug the computer into the OBD2 port and run diagnostics, and then replace the indicated parts from the fault tree. But not all test procedures can find intermittent problems, especially in the case of power consumption after the vehicle has stopped. (I have been there)

This is why these vehicles have a headache for all low-amperage electronic devices. (And mechanics who don’t know how to solve problems that the diagnostic software can’t find (ie, "parts changers"))

You can find any number of videos on youtube, the dealer shows "replace" in the video, and then the guy takes the offending part apart and fixes it in 20 minutes, usually a small part of $2.

I have a comprehensive troubleshooting method-my repairman and model truck are exactly the same as my repairman, and the same for the other three places where we are. The troubleshooting takes about one minute, usually only 10 seconds at the highest. What really helped him is that all of us are careful and will provide him with a detailed list of symptoms. Another advantage of the local mechanic over the dealer is that he can diagnose the best way to repair it-after-sales parts, second-hand parts, factory parts (may be different from the replacement schedule of official parts), and sometimes even ignore it.

Thank you, this is one of the clearest and most concise explanations of the car repair/car design process (and its expensive dysfunction).

One question-do you have any insights into the suitability/sufficiency of the OBD2 system to reveal outstanding issues with *used* cars?

The future of the United States is poverty, which means using old products.

But the purchase of used cars has always been a minefield.

Can the OBD2 diagnostic program help in a way that civilians do not understand?

Cas127, your question:

"One question-do you have any insights on the suitability/adequacy of the OBD2 system to reveal outstanding issues with *used* cars?"

For used cars, the seller (private or dealer) can scan to see if there is or may be (waiting) fault codes. You can now buy a very good scanner for less than $100, and even check airbags, gearboxes, certain suspensions (wheel speed indicator-ABS failure) and all emission functions (Cat Converter, O2) Sensors, MAF and MAP sensors, etc.).

You can use the $100 scanner to delete most fault codes on a "temporary" basis (check whether the engine lights and other indicator lights are off). What I mean is temporary. The computer (ECU) must check the "driving cycle" to verify that certain fault codes have been deleted and necessary repairs have been made. If the driving cycle is completed and the repair is not completed, the code will be thrown again. These cycles are called "preparation" cycles, and if they are not completed, the code will be thrown out according to my instructions. Similarly, the scanner will display the Ready Monitor reading as INC (incomplete).

If you show up at the test station for periodic inspections and none of the readiness monitors show OK (complete), you will not be able to pass the inspection.

If the repair is completed correctly and the driving cycle is complete, the scanner will display that no code exists and the ready monitor has been cleared (will display as OK).

As far as I know, only dealers with the correct OBD2 software can clear (delete) the fault code and close the preparation cycle without having to complete the complete driving cycle. And I believe that only licensed distributors can own the software.

In most cases, the "driving cycle" of the OBD2 readiness monitor can reach 100 miles under various roads and traffic conditions.

Automakers have installed these ready-made driving cycle capabilities to prevent people from clearing fault codes within a short period of time after bringing the car into emission testing. Most test conditions require all emission parameters to be within tolerance.

Believe it or not, the fault code of an airbag system failure is not the reason for the failure to pass the inspection under certain conditions. crazy. Many states combine safety inspections with emission testing.

Hope this helps answer your question.

Anthony -

This is why dealers are contacting vehicle engineers directly today because they have to involve them in order to fix many problems. The vehicle is so complicated that you have to study the design in depth to begin to understand the causality, and WAYYYY is beyond the salary scale of today's parts replacement business. The engineer will even fly to the dealer to assist.

DC, yes, yes, I have seen this situation. They are absolutely unwilling to do this, but some problems do lie on the store's head. If the problem is with cars of the same year and model, some of them will be recalled completely.

Looks like uberpreppers had the last laugh. In addition to new cars, when will these shortages affect the production of agricultural machinery, parts, consumer goods and other durable goods?

Option A: You buy what you need, and then wait for the product to go on sale to ease the rising inflation, hoping that you can get it when you actually need it, or

Option B: You have purchased everything you absolutely need (except dairy products) and have sufficient resources to provide services to friends, family and neighbors in case of emergency or long-term interruption of supply lines.

Food consumption is ultimately limited by how much food people can eat. Of course there will be some guesses and guesses, but in the end the food must be eaten, which limits the demand. But production may exceed demand (this is the reason why prices of agricultural products fall regularly).

What is missing is: (higher "margin per vehicle" * lower number) still equals a decrease in sales team revenue...Retail sales Mob February -3.0%, Core -2.7% reflects all of this...

What will last longer? :

a) Shortage on the supply side causes consumer prices to rise

b) Debt relief for financing a)

Yes, fewer cars sold = fewer salespeople selling cars at the dealership = more layoffs. The entire car price increase cannot be sustained at all. Covered by debt.

In-depth fees:

"Yes, fewer cars sold = fewer salespeople selling cars at dealerships = more layoffs. The whole car price increase simply cannot be sustained. It is covered by debt."

wrong. They will apply for Covid UI benefits and eventually get more benefits due to their inability to work. It is coded as law. Start with the narrative of deflation.

Unemployment benefits are low wage income at best. No one will rely on it for long-term income. Real unemployment is the cause of aggravated deflation. If people have jobs, they will not need to extend unemployment, rent and mortgages are suspended.

Have you been tracking these disasters across the country to pay for these benefits. Most of the criminals are foreigners, people who have gained wealth from unemployment. The truly unemployed are still waiting for their benefits.

Petunia-(updated) "Pretty Boy Floyd" by Woody Guthrie:

"...When you travel in your life, you will meet a lot of interesting people, some people rob you with six guns, and some people rob you with a pen (or keyboard)...".

May we all find a better day.

@ Petunia

"Unemployment benefits are low wages at best."

Let's do some basic mathematical operations:

450 + 300 = 750

Side work = 1250

750 + 1250 = 2000 per week, 8680 per month

X 3 working family members: 312,480 per year (actually tax-free, equivalent to Gali’s total income of $500,000), income increased by 60%. Does not include child tax credits, etc.

Now add:

You don't have to pay rent or mortgage.

Go back and look at the durable goods chart.

Deflation?

"Have you been tracking this disaster across the country to pay for these benefits. The offenders are mostly foreigners, people who got rich from unemployment."

I am not an armchair economist. My feet are on the street. Everyone is cheating the system, whether it's the little guy or the big guy (PPP fraud). The fraud was sanctioned by the government. In a tight supply economy, our unemployment rate is actually 0%, but our income is soaring.

Deflation?

"Although the real unemployed are still waiting for their benefits."

of course.

Calef's "temporary inflation" is also called planetary extortion by the chip patent owner. This is the second sweating plan. The first is to join Blackstone Aladin with snowflakes to curb the planetary money supply through a fixed price. Due to arrogant carelessness and weak exploitation, bad guys are always trapped at the end of James Bond movies.

The Texas freeze has interrupted the supply of resin to auto parts suppliers, forcing my brother to work more hours in one of the three major automakers.

I think I read that the incredible increase in wood prices is actually caused by the same resin shortage, not so much the actual supply of wood to be processed, as it is.

The Texas freeze also shut down the Samsung manufacturer, which will open/expand chip production there.

These semiconductors are not only the MIA for new cars, but they are also purchasing parts. When the design changes, the manufacturing process is complete. Good luck and hope to purchase parts. Just like they don’t store extra items permanently. Complex electronic products do not need to be repaired, only need to be replaced and replaced when the system fails. I have a few very old Motorola and Kenwood amateur radios. In the past few years, their value has risen incredibly because they can be repaired. They are also very robust. Newer radios are thrown away when they are exited.

There is also design stupidity. To my surprise, many 4X4s actually run their front drive shafts through the oil pan. Everything works by the sending unit "Fax Drive". Even the horns. There are a whole generation of people who don't know how to check tire inflation or don't know what it is? For me, the person who made the topping ceremony was the young lady who borrowed my mother's jeep. She came in and asked how to roll up the window? There are crank windows on the jeep. She had never seen a manual window before.

Complexity does not breed flexibility. This article demonstrates this to the tee. Think if there has ever been an EMP? Pandemic? Weather event? war? :-) It happened.

Yes, when the microchip in the paddle doesn't work, you are really on Schitts Creek!

Yes, please make sure that the front and rear derailleurs of your bicycle are fully charged, otherwise you will only be able to ride on one gear!

In addition to Wolf's view that cars are wheeled computers, I also like to read reviews of new performance motorcycles, and one of the main points of the analysis is how the electronic management system works.

Active rear shock absorbers and front forks are new areas of driving control. I have a two-year-old bicycle with manually adjustable compression and rebound damping at the front and rear, but I wonder if I should spend a few thousand more to buy an active system?

Interestingly, after trying several different settings to find a good balance between ride comfort and handling, I went back to the recommended standard settings.

DanR-glad believes that everyone has enough retrospective applicability (should continue to increase the fun of self-improvement in engineering/mechanical marking), and I have accumulated knowledge of motorcycle suspension/frame/tire in my life. I kept my life. A small number of bicycles ridden in previous centuries are fun, fast on the road (before the turn of the century, the availability of road horsepower far exceeded the available needs of most riders), and the price was moderate.

In other words, many proud owners of new machines (who avoided the necessary installation stamps) immediately ignored the comprehensive talents of the OEM engineers, always surprised, and caused a lot of problems before restoring the machine to a more or less state. Original specifications for normal operation of tears

Ride on a safe and happy trail.

May we all find a better day.

I wonder if all of this will cause some manufacturers to reconsider their supply chain philosophy. The non-management of JIT ("Just in Time") inventory will not cause any disruption to the supply chain. Of course, keeping large inventories is not very effective. Perhaps at least in IBM commercials, "hybrid" (everyone wants a "hybrid") and JIT, but the existing inventory is "just right" to cushion the interruption.

To be sure, this will not be the last pandemic we have endured, because we will even more cannibalize nature. We now have a time benchmark to use: calculate at least a year to spend the 5 painful stages and perfect the vaccine (we may never perfect the distribution, at least without the NHS), so the value of one year is very important There are parts hidden; if you don't need them, you can dig hell out of what you need.

This will require Kennedy's "moon landing" government. Sponsor the project to bring the supply chain back to the United States. Skilled people and companies are no longer there. In Germany, Japan and Switzerland, there are thousands of companies that provide small and medium-sized projects for large-scale OEM production lines such as Volkswagen, Bayer, and Nestlé. In the U.S. or U.K., this kind of infrastructure no longer exists, and government industrial policies will not come back without a large-scale infrastructure.

Topcat is so easy to say. The number of my compatriots will never shock you. They honestly believe that all aspects of the old "Made in America" ​​supply chain have quietly slept for more than 25 years, and only need a formal statement to fully wake up (reminder Monty Python The "Dead Parrot / Pet Shop" sketch...).

My experience with JIT is that this means imposing supplier warehouse space. There is always a lot of inventory, just in different books.

It clearly proves that just-in-time inventory is a huge failure and a huge drawback of just-in-time production. I doubt the long-term viability of the timely inventory taught to me in college in the mid-1980s. I always thought, what if? Okay, what happened...

This is it

-"There is also the stupidity of the design."...

Yes, but this is completely reasonable in the current way of thinking. In this case, wasting* non-renewable resources is an acceptable price in social and economic competition.

I suspect that this situation will automatically adjust: if there is nothing else to waste, the waste will stop.

Engine-ear: The never-ending tragedy of the commons... ("...who knows??? !!!...).

Paul:

"When the design changes, the manufacturing process is complete. Good luck to purchase parts."

Excellent call.

Yes, my friend cannot buy parts for his 1994 Cadillac. Although it is still running, no internal parts or air suspension parts can be found.

Go to the website of the larger local junkyard (used car parts). They are connected to all the larger garbage dumps in the country through a computer network. You can find almost anything.

There are some small manufacturers of customized suspension parts in SoCal, they can make the products your friends need into AA.

King is a name you can look up online, I heard that the people there are very helpful...

Maybe someone else caters to the off-road community based on what they told me recently.

American IIRC automakers were previously required to provide repair parts for their products within 20 years after the end of any model.

Maybe someone can tell us if this is still the law.

Thank you,

Don't worry Paulo, the children will only book more time with their therapist.

The Fed seems to be betting on a reduction in the inflation rate, or even deflation. Why would it be announced before 2023 that it will maintain zero interest rates?

If it expects inflation to continue, I believe it will raise interest rates. The current stock market bubble with a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 35 is about twice the historical average. Coupled with high profits, buyers are not really investing, but gambling. The house always wins.

In fact, it is much worse than it looks, because there are multiple layers of leverage, superimposed on each other.

For example, by historical standards, not only is the market crazy expensive, but the company's own leverage is higher than ever (recording company debt). Therefore, these high P/E ratios are actually lower than a prudent balance sheet.

Then the next level is that investors are extremely leveraged. For example, see Wolf's previous blog post.

Wait, this is actually a house of cards based on the assumption that the central bank can and will always support the market.

Should we ask Jerome about "just in time" and inventory?

"Why would it be announced separately that it will maintain interest rates close to zero by 2023?"

You believe that their actions are in the best interest and in line with their requirements for stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates. they do not.

Powell is controlling "perception." The inflation that has just occurred and that is about to occur has not been fully measured... Grains, wood, copper, natural gas and oil... have all been explained... Spikes are temporary signals.

They hope.

Lagarde and Powell both said the same thing...and both were in the same boat. They said they will "see through this spike." In other words, they will ignore the blatant truth.

Regrettably, some people think that the Fed’s Congress, which is responsible for promoting stable prices, enjoys free borrowing costs because they can vote for antics and huge bills.

A flaw in the system. As everyone from Socrates to De Tocqueville pointed out, when people learn that they can vote for their currency from the Treasury Department (through the Federal Reserve), democracy fails. Financial failure.

The Fed also focuses on employment, not just limited to low inflation.

Covid spent so much money, and they hope that inflation will pay for it. I have doubts, but one can hope.

I think that at some point in the 20th century, perhaps during the high inflation period, the PE fell to 6.9 in the 1980s. There is a lot of air under our wings.

This imbalance is simply because the amount of "stimulus" invested in the economy is much higher than the actual loss of income caused by Covid. Even if there is no supply chain disruption caused by a pandemic, you will face shortages.

Plastic is made of natural gas liquid. Banning the exploitation of oil and natural gas on federal land may have a negative impact on ethylene production. Ethane gas is the raw material for plastic production.

China is building the capacity of semiconductor chip foundries to protect its supply chain from sanctions imposed by the United States for patent and copyright infringement and other Chinese theft of American intellectual property rights. For them, it is easier to steal computers to steal research and development than to conduct their own research and development.

When the network design cannot meet the basic functional practical goals, a large number of practical problems will arise. At present, some people think that the function of the network must be the first stage of proving where they are wrong. I doubt very much whether some of the top talents who have rooted many companies have actually read the first chapter of "Integrated Computer Network Systems" by Frank Welch. I just re-read this small chapter, because this is my bible, so I will review it regularly. The network needs maintenance. "

In other words, many real bastards don't understand maintenance at all. They don't know what work is. If I have any thoughts on anything I write, it remains to be seen!

1.1 Enterprise Network

Reply; Reliability: "You don't allow yourself to rely on tools that are only available under certain circumstances."

In other words, you must know the tools you really need to do everything.

Lisa

"You don't allow yourself to become dependent..."

And our country has allowed this condition.

Trade deficits and spells, foreign-controlled lobbyists and foreign students who enter our technical universities through grants and special considerations are irrelevant.

We have mapped our own demise.

I have a shortage of chips. This is because a large number of container ships anchored on our coast use "COVID". I don’t buy the Texas Storm that caused plastic shortages. Since the end of 2020, petrochemical raw materials have been in short supply. Due to the shortage of polypropylene, we had a European supplier declared force majeure in January. How much plastic molding did we actually do here in the United States long before the storm came? Silicone is also almost unavailable.

Rising prices are killing everyone. After we cut the purchase order, many people came. In the past, these were usually additional costs, and hopefully they will disappear when things "normalize". There is no surcharge for this round.

China used to buy a lot of recyclable plastics, especially from Canada. I heard that they stopped buying goods from Canada about 2 years ago, and they may have stopped buying goods from us and tariff issues. I don’t think we actually recycle most of the things we throw away.

"Recyclable Plastic"

Euphemistic waste

A few years before the tariffs took effect, China closed its borders to plastic waste, not only to the United States but to the world.

Rising prices and the beginning of shortages meant that we missed shipping dates, which were previously affected by safety stock levels. The delivery of steel was delayed for several weeks. However, almost everything seems to be behind.

Today’s rumor is that the production of cargo airliners has been suspended for 90 days due to shortages. That will not help us.

In the past three months, demand has been strong, but supply has basically kept pace.

Cars are now wired microcomputers. These chips are connected to a network whose strength is only its weakest link. Missing the required one or two ICs, the car cannot complete it. When Superstorm Sandy struck New York in 2012, it caused flooding and immersed tens of thousands of cars in salt water. The salt water corroded the wiring inside these cars, causing the electronic equipment of these cars to malfunction, and insuring many cars; thousands of submerged cars were towed to a large parking lot in Calverton, Long Island for storage, and then Final disposal. The CAN [Controller Area Network] bus system of the car uses car wiring corroded by salt water. CAN is the physical wiring, chip and software that control the operation of the car. A bus is just a way for electronic components to communicate with each other. "CAN is a multi-host serial bus standard for connecting electronic control units [ECU]." The CAN bus is a collection of 2 wires in the car network, in which information can be sent to or from the ECU. For example, in "Mercedes cars, CAN wiring has been incorporated since 1992 to allow sharing of information for engines, transmissions, airbags, anti-lock braking systems, and suspension control systems."

When the power system fails, everything shuts down. Texas is just the largest wind turbine operating in every cold climate in the world, but people in Texas are willing to help others. If they want, what will happen to independent and strong citizens? The wolves of this country have apartments in Spain

Is your period key damaged?

I was thinking he was talking about his position. Or he is a robot out of control.

More importantly... the car or the phone? In 10 years from now, you will learn about the huge collusion scandal of chip manufacturers...

let's see. Texas withdrew itself from the US grid and refused to prepare its energy sector for fairly average winter storms (once every 15 years). Now, factories across the United States are closed as a result.

As they say, follow money....

So who is making big money here?

Before the storm, Texas was preparing to become a powerful producer. Now that the grid has shown its weaknesses, many projects have been postponed or put on hold.

It seems that there are economic/political actors making decisions to stop the productivity wave. It is this group of people who want to use immigration to flood the country, eliminate energy production, and increase censorship.

In fact, this is a 100-year weather event.

More than anything else, the geoengineering moment is more important, resulting in an immediate Enron-like situation that robbed Texas taxpayers of billions of dollars.

I remember experiencing three "100-year floods" in 10 years.

These things did not go according to plan.

There is no such thing as a "100-year flood". The new FEMA flood map and subsequent insurance premiums will prove this.

In 1989, our situation was even worse. More frozen houses and a week of severe cold. I am here, and that happened in Houston.

Maybe some people cannot get what they want, but there will never be a shortage of cars. For automakers, this may also be a win-win situation. GMO workers on leave? Shut down plants and save money. They can increase prices, (or dealers can increase prices) their inventory. For Tesla, this may also be good, because other automakers have the same backlog. Want to know whether the zero annual interest rate is complete?

The price mechanism is conducive to the rapid recovery of the economy, because high profit rates allow people to do almost impossible things. Go there once or twice, when the company can't give out money fast enough to get good employees to work hard for the gold ring.

Apart from the shortage of chips in the automotive industry, no one should blame themselves.

When car sales collapsed when the epidemic started, automakers cut production (very rationally) but also cancelled chip orders. Most of the automotive industry suppliers are captured and only absorbed when this happens. The semiconductor fab has undoubtedly found other customers to take over the reduced manufacturing capacity of the automotive industry.

After the rebound in auto sales, the auto industry returned to the semiconductor industry and announced that "we have changed our minds, and we hope that all these chips will be available immediately," and the fab told them to "queue."

The auto industry has been bargaining, but shoes are the other foot. Automakers either have to pay a lot more for their chips, or sign firm purchase commitments, or learn not to do so.

Cynical Engineer: Your report seems credible to me. I bet this is a factor in the re-starting production dilemma.

Regarding the shortage of containers, remember that chips only take up very little space. One container can hold one million containers, and they are of high value. The person delivering the fries can afford to pay a lot of freight (for example, reaching the top of the shipping queue).

Only this time, I believe Powell and Yellen said that "the shortage and the inflation related to the shortage are temporary." I think they are like this: temporary.

A not-so-temporary fact in economic life is the decrease in household income. I saw some statistics today about how Americans will spend the next stimulus check. These numbers cannot add up to 100%, because people can spend money on many things, but these are the top five distributions by household:

Savings – 34%

Food – 30%

Housing – 22%

Debt reduction – 18%

Home improvement – ​​11%

They spend money on running the family and saving emergency expenses.

Why is this relevant? Because HH did not do this. When you get a windfall and have to use it for food, rent and debt reduction... you are not a "rich man". You just need to glue it together and you can use it next week.

With this as a background-income cannot provide the "expected benchmark" standard of living, and the government does not have to inject stimulus funds into HH to keep demand growth (because they are not making money by Paychex)-it is heading towards the end of the game, guys.

Therefore, we will not see interest rates rising too much. It is impossible to have excessive debt at all levels. The Fed will (absolutely must) avoid any costs. Balance sheet to Pluto. If the currency cost increases, payment cannot be made.

We will not see an increase in revenue. Globalization, automation, etc. al.

This means more excitement. This is the last step.

Next question: What should we do when we can no longer provide stimuli? How many years will we be there?

Please provide option B, because I seem to be too vague to recognize it.

Ask sincerely.

Hey Tom! Some "citizens" do realize that they can "vote" for themselves from the Fed.

That would be huge companies, banks, military-industrial complexes and super wealthy 1% (or 3% or 5%). They have people called lobbyists, but our little guy doesn't. They control Congress.

These people rewritten all the rules (including the tax law) to benefit themselves, at the expense of the "little guy." This is why real wages in the United States have remained stable for 50 years (my whole life).

This is why, as one of the richest countries in the world, the United States, which has abundant resources, can only raise the minimum. Wages range from 1981 ($3.35/hour) to 2021 ($7.25/hour), an average of one penny per year for less than four years.

This is why stimulus is necessary, because a report a few years ago showed that ordinary Americans clearly did not have the $400 for "emergency" use. This is why the previous president's $2T gift to the company is so weird for the rich.

The counterfeiter painted the country as a corner. Bernie Sanders said to Jeff Bezos: "You have $182 billion! Why do you want to prevent your employees from raising their salaries?"

This is a very good question. The huge company, MID, 1% stake and their puppies, all GOPs and most Dems (but not all), will destroy our will and greed. Raise the minimum wage by $3.90 in 40 years!

Petunia

"Unemployment benefits are at best low wage income"

I generally agree with you, but,

1) There are many reports indicating that a considerable proportion of the unemployed have a higher unemployment rate (people who use Covid to play football)

Do more than they do at work.

I don’t know if these reports have been exaggerated... There should be some annual income statistics/subdivision versions of these statistics, and they should tell a more complete story.

2) In certain sub-sectors (which Wolff regularly emphasizes), it is difficult to compare unemployment and poverty with the “increase” in total expenditure.

From March last year to now (there are currently 150 million former Covids), 2.7 to 10 million jobs have been lost. If the unemployment rate cannot pay a "premium" for the previous job wages, it is difficult to see *any* products Sector growth.

Possibly (purchasing power parity kicks, interest rates ruined) but difficult.

I definitely want to see personal income statistics and classifications for 2019 and 2020.

3) In any case, this is a messed up country economically.

To give an example, let an unemployed worker in Florida. Assume they are eligible for a 12-week unemployment plus federal extension in Florida. I will be very generous and assume that they are eligible for a weekly full salary of $275, with an annual salary of $30K.

The worker almost took home wages minus a few dollars. Any worker who makes more money will suffer more from unemployment. Anyone whose income is less than the $15 HR required to get $30K is best to get extra stimulation, but these people do not save, but spend it on necessities.

It takes a long time to make up for what you couldn't bear when you fell. People who earn the minimum wage have almost no ability to go to work and eat. I don't hesitate their extra money, they should earn a moderate salary anyway.

I live in Florida and I know someone who has been on the unemployment line for 8 hours!

I have spent nearly 40 years in the system and decided to try for a few years when I am unemployed. I have never tried it. Always too proud.

I decided: "Damn it, I'll try it." I found that, like many other systems, this system cannot be navigated. I will not keep it for 8 hours. Therefore, I have never seen a penny.

This is not a defect, but a function. Maybe when the poor rise up and launch a revolution against the rich, they will realize that their collective greed is a bit too much.

The expulsion of the middle class in the United States is underway and has been going on for 5 years.

Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few commodities. Too much money alone will not cause (a lot of) inflation. To really raise prices requires a shortage of supply.

Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing can save money only when the entire supply chain is functioning normally. However, if you don't do this, it can become very expensive. We hope that manufacturers can learn from our current supply shortages to get rid of JIT at least partially.

When the on-time supply chain (inevitably) fails again, all these vacant malls will be a good place to store additional manufactured parts as a buffer.

Very easy to put!

Supply chain pressure is happening everywhere, mainly due to this pandemic, but the trade war with China is also making things worse. This is a trade war that the United States does not intend to end soon.

I have heard that FedEx's delivery has been stretched twice as long in some areas since it has been heard. When the world (the existing China) finally opens up, things will become strange.

Ford update:

Ford said that it will continue to assemble its flagship F-150 pickup truck and Edge SUV in North America, but does not have certain parts due to a global shortage of semiconductor chips, and canceled shifts at the two assembly plants.

Ford said the chip shortage, coupled with the shortage of parts caused by the winter storm in the United States last month, will prompt it to manufacture vehicles (numbered "thousands") and then "store them for several weeks" until parts become available.

The cancellation of production includes three-shift production at a factory in Kentucky by Friday, which produces Ford Escape and Lincoln Corsair SUVs.

Ford has said that the shortage of chips may reduce its revenue this year by $1B-$2.5B.

As the bard said, Cry destroys and releases the dog that is rising in price. The company makes more money on fewer units. Stupid American consumers are trained from birth to beating until they fall. They will pay them and then fall in love with it. OWJ and his government will have to continue to provide free money to American consumers if they

If you want to retain power, the company's dog knows this.

Isn't this a classic case of "the more, the more likely to go wrong"? If the car does not have all the electronic "nonsense", there will be no chip or plastic issues. If it is not needed, why add a part of Chinese products?

When measured in terms of features/dollars, the actual quality of life gains from so-called "modern" products are illusory. When I bought a car in 1960, my first car had been in use for 30 years. With a pack of wrenches in the suitcase, I will travel the world. Now, if there is no breakdown insurance and mobile phone, I would not go to the supermarket. Even then, I was worried about the phone signal and whether the trailer could find me. Under the hood is a restricted area. Marketers and complex regulatory agencies have sold our freedom of choice to all of us, which is a huge "trouble". If you find a car without any nonsense, tell me, I will buy one.

The way I always hear from engineers is: "...if something is really good, it doesn’t have enough'functions'..." (maybe the old "Peter’s Principle" technical inference, which The level of people rises/exceeds the limit of their ability to perform tasks of that level?).

The necessary places have been marked

Everything is on ice. But when the probation period ends, people who are forced to sell or lend will bring millions of homes to the market.

"Once the crisis tool has achieved its purpose, the central bank should scale down."

Frankly speaking, without a WeWork list that can make SoftBank stand out, the WTF SPAC bubble will be incomplete.

Now they want to know why.

The Fed smiled at the rise in long-term Treasury yields, which is a sign of rising economic growth and inflation expectations.

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